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Bear Alert Update

SMI's Bear Alert indicator triggered this past Friday. That means the S&P 500 put in its first weekly (Friday) close at a level more than -15% below the prior high. That high was set a little more than four months ago on
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Maintaining Perspective

Everyone take a deep breath. It's been ugly out there the past three days. Four months into this bear market, we finally got the first whiff of real fear and perhaps a little capitulation selling yesterday. There are two
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And So It Begins

The big day is finally here — Fed day, the day everyone expects the Fed to begin tightening conditions in earnest. This has been long telegraphed, as modern central banks seem to hate surprising investors. But it's still a
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Market Risks Rise as Fed Joins Battle Against Inflation

The Fed's Quantitative Easing supplied extra money to the financial markets. Now, comes Quantitative Tightening. If the goal of QE was to boost asset prices, the goal of QT is to lower them.
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Will Fed Tightening Break Something?

There's a perception that the Fed hasn't done much yet to counter inflation and that this battle will basically begin at their May meeting. That's largely accurate, as the Fed has been way behind the curve in dealing with
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SMI on the Radio: Beyond Stocks and Bonds (audio & transcript)

Commodities, real estate, and certain other investments that once had little appeal to the average investor — and were largely out of reach anyway — have become more mainstream and accessible. And, as SMI executive editor
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Controlling What We Can

The Covid-19 pandemic has taken a financial toll on many households. For example, a recent Fidelity study found that a quarter of U.S. adults are less confident than they were before the pandemic that they will eventually
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The Most Important Financial Chart

It has been a wild start to 2022. This has obviously been true in the "real world" as the world deals with a major European land war for the first time in decades. It's also been true in financial markets, as the
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Drawdowns – They’re a Drag, But a Fact of Life

The path toward gain always includes downturns along the way. Learn more about the stock market’s remarkable record of short-term losses and recoveries.
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The Fed’s Target Is…You

The Fed formally kicked off its tightening initiative last week with a relatively modest hike of 0.25% to the Fed Funds rate. The stock market has moved forcefully higher since then (although it finally sold off a bit
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