Home >Articles

Category: Current Market Events

Annual Seasonality Buy Signal Triggered – Fall 2018

This post has the potential to be confusing, especially for newer readers. So let me begin by saying that if you don't know what the term "annual seasonality" means, you can safely ignore everything written here. For
Continue Reading

Will You Panic When the Market Eventually Rolls Over?

“For God has not given us the spirit of fear, but of . . . a sound mind.” 2 Timothy 1:7 Investing can be challenging, not because the concepts are difficult to master, but because we are emotional creatures. The
Continue Reading

Duration: A Simple Way to Gauge Bond Risk

In early October, longer-term Treasury-bond yields crossed the proverbial “line in the sand” in the eyes of some bond observers. In just three days, the 10-year yield soared from 3.05% to 3.23%, reaching its highest level
Continue Reading

Bond Market “Regime Change”

In SMI's October cover article, The Role of SMI’s Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy in Light of Current Market Dynamics, we revisited the concern that led to the research/creation of DAA:
Continue Reading

Context for an Ugly October

If you've been tuned into the market's ugly recent slide, it's probably hard to believe that just three weeks ago the market was setting new all-time highs. This downturn has been sudden and painful, but isn't particularly
Continue Reading

3 Reasons SMI Is Banging the Bear Market Drum

SMI has increasingly emphasized caution as this year has progressed, with the latest examples being our October cover article on Dynamic Asset Allocation and Matt's Voices of Reason, Reasons for Caution post Monday. Seems
Continue Reading

Fund Companies Continue to Drop Prices, Reduce Cost of Entry

In autumn, many of us enjoy watching the falling leaves. Mutual-fund investors, meanwhile, are enjoying falling fees. Although the fund industry’s “race to the bottom” probably isn’t over (more prices may yet drop), two
Continue Reading

Trend-Following vs. Predictive Investing

Today I'm going to discuss a fundamental investing distinction between trend-following and predictive strategies. Occasionally I'm reminded that some of these foundational investing building blocks need to be revisited
Continue Reading

Storm Warnings: Looking Back & Forward

Hurricane Florence appears poised to blast the Carolinas in the coming days, with 1.7 million people currently under evacuation warnings and some 5.4 million covered by various hurricane watches and warnings. It's a
Continue Reading

SMI’s Approach to Investing in “Late-Cycle” Bull Markets

Most of the investing world hailed the current bull market taking over the crown as the “longest bull in history” on August 22. While there were a few dissenters arguing over that distinction, by most measures, the current
Continue Reading