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Trend-Following vs. Predictive Investing

Today I'm going to discuss a fundamental investing distinction between trend-following and predictive strategies. Occasionally I'm reminded that some of these foundational investing building blocks need to be revisited
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Storm Warnings: Looking Back & Forward

Hurricane Florence appears poised to blast the Carolinas in the coming days, with 1.7 million people currently under evacuation warnings and some 5.4 million covered by various hurricane watches and warnings. It's a
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SMI’s Approach to Investing in “Late-Cycle” Bull Markets

Most of the investing world hailed the current bull market taking over the crown as the “longest bull in history” on August 22. While there were a few dissenters arguing over that distinction, by most measures, the current
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Before You Invest

With the stock market near its all-time highs, it’s easy to get complacent. There’s a tendency to forget the pain of the last bear market, take on more risk than we should, and minimize the importance of basic financial
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September Sightings

Rising and Falling Uncertainty Worries abound, from Chinese trade wars…to midterm campaign-related uncertainty…. [But] I’ve crunched data since long before PCs arrived, [so I know that] the Standard & Poor’s 500 index has
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Longest Bull Market in History?

Today the stock market is being widely celebrated for having set a new record as the longest bull market in history. At 3,453 days old, it officially passes the previous record set by the bull that ran from October 1990 to
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Making Sure Your Online Investment Accounts Are Safe

Identity theft has been a frequently recurring news item in recent years, impacting millions of customers of Target, Yahoo, LinkedIn, Dropbox, Equifax, and many others. Online brokers have not been immune from such
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Investing in an Over-Extended Bull Market

It's a classic dilemma and one that investors spend a surprisingly large amount of time dealing with: how to invest when the data seem to suggest the market is "late" in a bull market cycle?
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2nd Quarter Report: Stocks Climb the Wall of Worry

After spending the first quarter of 2018 worrying about the return of inflation and volatility, investors found a new concern to obsess over in the second quarter: the possibility of a global trade war. But unlike
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Understanding “Regression to the Mean” Helps Manage Expectations

In investing, as in life, it’s important to manage your expectations. There’s nothing quite like an unmet expectation to drive misery and misbehavior. That helps explain why fewer people own stocks today than before the
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