Bear Alert

Important Notice About Bear Alert Relevance:

SMI's Bear Alert Indicator attempts to distinguish between a sell-off that is within the bounds of normal bull-market activity and one likely to turn into a full-fledged bear market. The Bear Alert was designed to be used, if desired, in connection with our core strategies Upgrading and Just-the-Basics.

However, more recent research has largely superseded the Bear Alert signals. For details on that research, read SMI’s Fund Upgrading Strategy Evolves: Introducing Upgrading 2.0 .

Although SMI continues to track the Bear Alert Indicator, we do so mostly as a confirmation of the signals available from Upgrading.

If you’re following Fund Upgrading, the signals that are now part of that strategy, rather than the Bear Alert Indicator, should serve as the primary indicator for when to consider bear-market portfolio adjustments.

If you are using Just-the-Basics, or managing a 401(k) or another type of retirement plan, Upgrading's signals can help you too. See Applying Upgrading 2.0 Signals to JtB or 401(k) Indexed Portfolios.

"Bear Alert Indicator" Status

Date of high closing price of bull market:


S&P 500 stock index closed on 1/03 at:


15% decline required a Friday close at or below:


Alert triggered: