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Recessions and the Stock Market

If a recession is at hand, the current bear market could last a while. Bear markets accompanied by recessions tend to last longer and drop farther than non-recessionary bears. 
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Making Sense of the Market’s Recent Cross-Currents

Every bear market rally lures investors into (wrongly) believing a new bull market is underway. SMI's process helps you avoid getting taken in by shorter-term trends.
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And So It Begins

The big day is finally here — Fed day, the day everyone expects the Fed to begin tightening conditions in earnest. This has been long telegraphed, as modern central banks seem to hate surprising investors. But it's still a
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Market Risks Rise as Fed Joins Battle Against Inflation

The Fed's Quantitative Easing supplied extra money to the financial markets. Now, comes Quantitative Tightening. If the goal of QE was to boost asset prices, the goal of QT is to lower them.
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The Fed’s Target Is…You

The Fed formally kicked off its tightening initiative last week with a relatively modest hike of 0.25% to the Fed Funds rate. The stock market has moved forcefully higher since then (although it finally sold off a bit
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Fed Hike Reactions

A few quick thoughts on the day of the first Fed rate hike since 2018...
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SMI on the Radio: A Nervous Market (audio & transcript)

Bearish sentiment rose sharply last month — and even though that sentiment has now softened somewhat, many investors remain uneasy. They're concerned about the economic and market impact of Fed policy, rising inflation,
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Pandemic Lessons — Will They Last?

The COVID-19 pandemic has been unlike anything most of us have ever experienced. With the worst of it apparently behind us now, many people are reflecting on what they’ve learned from it, how it has impacted their
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Predictive Ability Is Overrated

One of the central tenets of SMI's investment philosophy is that trying to predict what the market will do next is a fool's errand. While there are a host of "gurus" who have become famous based on a particular market
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SMI on the Radio: Good News on the Economy, But Don’t Throw Caution to the Wind (audio & transcript)

The economy is booming and the stock market has been humming. But are we headed toward a significant bout of inflation? SMI's executive editor Mark Biller offered insights on the economy and the markets last week on Moody
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