“[T]he baby-boom generation is aging and increasing the number of beneficiaries much faster than the increase in the number of covered workers, as subsequent lower-birth-rate generations replace the baby-boom generation at working ages. There were [only] about 2.7 workers for every [Social Security] beneficiary in 2024. This ratio had been stable, remaining between 3.2 and 3.4 from 1974 through 2008.... The underlying demographic shift will continue to drive this ratio down over the next 10 to 15 years.
“Under the Trustees’ [estimates under current law], Social Security’s total cost is projected to be higher than its total income in 2025 and all later years.... The OASI [Old-Age & Survivors Insurance] Trust Fund reserves are projected to become depleted in 2033, at which time OASI income would be sufficient to pay [only] 77 percent of...scheduled benefits.
“Legislative action will be needed to prevent OASI reserve depletion.... Broadly speaking, the approaches that lawmakers can take include:
increasing revenue from workers and employers by raising the tax rate or the maximum level of taxable earnings, or by dedicating revenue from other sources;
lowering benefits for some or all beneficiaries by changing certain program parameters; or
a combination of these approaches....
“The Trustees recommend that lawmakers address the projected trust fund shortfalls in a timely way in order to phase in necessary changes gradually and give workers and beneficiaries time to adjust.”
— From the Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds, released 6/18/2025. The full report is available at www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2025/.
