It's a busy holiday-shortened week. The December issue of the SMI Newsletter will be available for members tomorrow at noon Eastern Time.
While you're waiting for that, or perhaps during some holiday downtime later in the week, I'd commend to you a recent interview with Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research and co-manager of the SMI 3Fourteen Full-Cycle Trend ETF (FCTE).
Long before deciding to work together, I gained immense respect for Warren as an analyst. My interest was initially piqued by Warren's expertise in energy/commodity markets, which SMI members know was a particular focus of mine starting in the second half of 2020 (leading to SMI adding commodities to Stock Upgrading at the end of that year). Warren had been the lead oil/commodities analyst at Ned David Research before starting his own shop at 3Fourteen Research, and it was clear he wasn't afraid to share non-consensus thoughts about that space. More often than not, he was right.
Over time, Warren's appearances became immediate listens for me, and my respect for his overall market sense and views continued to grow. I consume a LOT of market analysis and Warren has earned his spot at the top of the heap. 3Fourteen's research is intensely data-driven and Warren's ability (along with 3Fourteen co-founder Fernando Vidal) to consistently uncover nuggets I'm not seeing/hearing about anywhere else — and have their insights regarding those nuggets prove correct — is extremely impressive.
All of that preamble is to say I think you'll find this interview interesting and worth the time if you're so inclined.
The first part of the interview focuses on small-company stocks vs. large, and specifically, why Warren doesn't think the S&P 500 is particularly expensive (I told you they aren't afraid to share non-consensus thoughts!). The title of the interview, "Stock Market Melt-Up Until 2026," isn't exactly how I'd have chosen to summarize their view, but Warren definitely provides intriguing food for thought regarding why current valuations probably shouldn't scare investors.
Of particular interest to SMI members
At the 48:00 mark of the interview, Warren discusses the Full-Cycle Trend model in greater detail than I've heard him go into publicly before. This is the model we profiled in SMI's August 2024 Cover article, and that forms the basis of the SMI 3Fourteen Full-Cycle Trend ETF (FCTE). Hearing Warren describe it in his own words is worth your time, even if you only listen to those 12 minutes or so of the interview.
That said, if you stick around for the rest, you'll hear his views on oil, gold, and Bitcoin. Time well spent.
You can watch the full video on YouTube below:
The interview is also available as an audio podcast at the following locations:
Apple: apple.co/4g6dzZo
Spotify: spoti.fi/3CK3gM4
