’Tis the season
“These annual documents are generally a good, tangible reminder that we are hopeless at forecasting and that financial markets are always a rotating cast of salient topics that feel urgent in the moment but have little predictable bearing on long-term outcomes. To the extent that short-term issues matter at all, it will be the ones that nobody is expecting that will have a significant market impact.”
– British investment writer Joe Wiggins, in a 12/9/25 post on his Behavioral Investment blog about the many market forecasts issued every year at this time. Read more at bit.ly/4oZSy6H.
In this case, timing matters
“Sequence of return risk is sneaky because it hides inside the timing of market swings rather than the averages. It can change the entire shape of your retirement income, even if your long-term returns look normal on paper.”
– Wade Pfau, in a recent post on his Retirement Researcher blog. He suggests four strategies for mitigating sequence of returns risk, which you can read about at bit.ly/4q9ZrmE.
Missed it by that much
“During bear markets, it’s tempting to think you can get out and get back in when the ‘coast is clear.’ The only problem? By the time the coast is clear, many of the best days and biggest gains will have already passed.”
– Charlie Bilello, in a 12/12/25 blog post. He noted that the early 2025 “tariff tantrum” market decline was followed by a strong recovery that left many market timers on the sidelines. Read more at bit.ly/4q2MGdu.
Betting on anything
“The long-term vision is to financialize everything and create a tradeable asset out of any difference in opinion.”
– Tarek Mansour, co-founder of Kalshi, at a recent Citadel Securities conference on the Future of Global Markets. Kalshi is a “prediction markets” platform that enables users to wager on everything from political races to the weather. As reported in a 12/11/25 Fast Company article, Mansour believes prediction markets will become bigger than the stock market. Read more at bit.ly/3YqRJsy.
