You may remember me writing early this summer about a recent survey in which 100% of economists had agreed that interest rates would rise over the following six months:
It’s not that I disagreed with the conclusion — to be fair, if I had been one of those surveyed, I would probably have wound up in the unanimous conclusion group as well. But any time 100% of the experts line up on one side of a financial market prediction/expectation, it sets the old spidey-sense tingling.
Well, the six-month window has closed, and the verdict is in. All 67 economists got it wrong: not only did the 10-yr Treasury not rise, it actually fell rather dramatically, from 2.73% the day of the survey, to 2.21% (and actually dipped below 2% briefly during the crazy trading two weeks ago).
One of SMI's recurring themes is the importance of becoming an "inside-out" investor: one who makes investing decisions based on personal goals and needs, rather than the "outside" stimulus of expert predictions and media. This is one vivid illustration why. Not only will approaching investing from an inside-out perspective align your portfolio much more closely with your personal needs, it will also help insulate it from the so-called experts.
Who, as this survey demonstrates, can be spectacularly wrong.