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Bond Market “Regime Change”

In SMI's October cover article, The Role of SMI’s Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy in Light of Current Market Dynamics, we revisited the concern that led to the research/creation of DAA:
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Context for an Ugly October

If you've been tuned into the market's ugly recent slide, it's probably hard to believe that just three weeks ago the market was setting new all-time highs. This downturn has been sudden and painful, but isn't particularly
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3 Reasons SMI Is Banging the Bear Market Drum

SMI has increasingly emphasized caution as this year has progressed, with the latest examples being our October cover article on Dynamic Asset Allocation and Matt's Voices of Reason, Reasons for Caution post Monday. Seems
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October Sightings

Sighting: The Case for Actively Managed Funds In the United States, assets have shifted away from actively managed funds and towards passively managed index funds and ETFs; specifically, less than 8% of the assets in
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Trend-Following vs. Predictive Investing

Today I'm going to discuss a fundamental investing distinction between trend-following and predictive strategies. Occasionally I'm reminded that some of these foundational investing building blocks need to be revisited
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Storm Warnings: Looking Back & Forward

Hurricane Florence appears poised to blast the Carolinas in the coming days, with 1.7 million people currently under evacuation warnings and some 5.4 million covered by various hurricane watches and warnings. It's a
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The Crucial Role of Behavior in Making Investing Decisions

“Your own behavior is by far the most important factor in investment success.” So says Brian Portnoy, author of The Geometry of Wealth. In this excerpt from the book, he explains how automating your investment decisions
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SMI’s Approach to Investing in “Late-Cycle” Bull Markets

Most of the investing world hailed the current bull market taking over the crown as the “longest bull in history” on August 22. While there were a few dissenters arguing over that distinction, by most measures, the current
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September Sightings

Rising and Falling Uncertainty Worries abound, from Chinese trade wars…to midterm campaign-related uncertainty…. [But] I’ve crunched data since long before PCs arrived, [so I know that] the Standard & Poor’s 500 index has
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Longest Bull Market in History?

Today the stock market is being widely celebrated for having set a new record as the longest bull market in history. At 3,453 days old, it officially passes the previous record set by the bull that ran from October 1990 to
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