Home >Articles

Category: Inflation Watch

Time and Inflation: Your Portfolio’s Best Friend vs. Its Worst Enemy

Time is Archimedes’s lever in investing. Archimedes is often quoted as saying, “Give me a lever long enough and a place to stand, and I can move the earth.” In investing, that lever is time (and the place to
Continue Reading

“TIPS” Protect Against Inflation, Not Rising Interest Rates

Inflation is the silent stalker of investment returns. Because it is neither paid directly, nor is it deducted—as taxes are—inflation often escapes detection even as it undercuts buying power. Even relatively low
Continue Reading

The Bond Market Is Shouting, But Is The Fed Listening?

The Federal Reserve’s desire to raise short-term interest rates has been clearly communicated for many months. It has been the key issue driving the investing markets all year (at least until last week's Brexit vote), and
Continue Reading

Various Takes on the Fed's Failure to Raise Rates

As is usually the case, opinion is all over the lot as to the wisdom of the Federal Reserve's decision to keep short-term interest rates at near zero levels. Here are links to (and brief excerpts from) some of the more
Continue Reading

Has SMI’s Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy Made Our Optional Inflation Hedges Recommendations Obsolete?

In creating the various kinds of mechanical strategies that we offer, there occasionally comes a time when an established one is superceded by a newer one. That may be the case with our Optional Inflation Hedges strategy.
Continue Reading

Sound - And Flawed - Thinking About Bonds

I spotted an interesting article last week, entitled "Here's the income portfolio you want to own when interest rates rise." Written by Mark Hulbert, it's addressing the question on everyone's mind these days. We were in
Continue Reading

News Concerning SMI’s Bear Alert and Optional Inflation Hedges Strategies

I want to update our members on two changes that we are making with respect to these two strategies. First, SMI's "Bear Alert" (BA) indicator is alive and well. (Those unfamiliar with the BA can learn more here.) It's
Continue Reading

Checking In On SMI’s Optional Inflation Hedges

Many people have been extremely concerned about inflation since 2008, when the Federal Reserve started rapidly increasing the money supply. I'm not going to go into a ton of detail on this today, but suffice it to say the
Continue Reading

When What You Know Is True…Isn’t True

One of the most widely held beliefs since the financial crisis in 2008 has been that the Fed's printing will eventually crash the dollar. I run into this all the time when I talk to people. The reality: not only has this
Continue Reading

For OIH Fans with Accounts at Schwab

In the latest issue, we announced a new recommendation—Alpine Realty Income and Growth—for the real estate component in our Optional Inflation Hedges portfolio. While that fund is available at our three recommended
Continue Reading