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Category: Inflation Watch

And So It Begins

The big day is finally here — Fed day, the day everyone expects the Fed to begin tightening conditions in earnest. This has been long telegraphed, as modern central banks seem to hate surprising investors. But it's still a
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Market Risks Rise as Fed Joins Battle Against Inflation

The Fed's Quantitative Easing supplied extra money to the financial markets. Now, comes Quantitative Tightening. If the goal of QE was to boost asset prices, the goal of QT is to lower them.
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Will Fed Tightening Break Something?

There's a perception that the Fed hasn't done much yet to counter inflation and that this battle will basically begin at their May meeting. That's largely accurate, as the Fed has been way behind the curve in dealing with
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SMI on the Radio: Beyond Stocks and Bonds (audio & transcript)

Commodities, real estate, and certain other investments that once had little appeal to the average investor — and were largely out of reach anyway — have become more mainstream and accessible. And, as SMI executive editor
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The Most Important Financial Chart

It has been a wild start to 2022. This has obviously been true in the "real world" as the world deals with a major European land war for the first time in decades. It's also been true in financial markets, as the
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Fed Hike Reactions

A few quick thoughts on the day of the first Fed rate hike since 2018...
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Energy Surge: Updating SMI’s Commodities Thinking in Light of a Falling Stock Market

Despite strong performance in recent months, commodities remain reasonably priced. And they've rarely been as attractive relative to stocks as they are today.
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Market Growing More Convinced Fed Is Serious About Fighting Inflation

January's consumer-price index report, issued late last week, estimated a rise of 7.5% from a year ago, the fastest rate of increase since 1982. As market researcher Jim Bianco noted on Twitter, that isn't just an
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Unpacking October’s 6.2% Inflation Report

October's CPI (consumer price index) inflation report was a doozie. Year-over-year, inflation rose at a 6.2% rate through October, the fastest rise in 30 years. When the inflation debate was kicking off early this year,
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$100 Oil — Why Not?

I've had some direct member requests for comment regarding "the stimulus and other Congressional goings-on and how this might all play out in the market both short and long-term" (to quote one that came in this
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