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Category: Economy

The Fed, Interest Rates, and the Eventual End of the Bull Market

After nine long years of Federal Reserve policies dominating the economic and investing landscape, it's understandable if many readers are experiencing acute "Fed fatigue" and have largely tuned out news relating to it.
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Corporate Earnings Are Sending Mixed Messages About The Stock Market’s Future

If one were to ask a group of investors what factors drive the stock market, any number of answers might emerge. Fear and greed. The Federal Reserve. Interest rates. The business cycle. All of these are partial truths—the
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The Bond Market Is Shouting, But Is The Fed Listening?

The Federal Reserve’s desire to raise short-term interest rates has been clearly communicated for many months. It has been the key issue driving the investing markets all year (at least until last week's Brexit vote), and
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Various Takes on the Fed's Failure to Raise Rates

As is usually the case, opinion is all over the lot as to the wisdom of the Federal Reserve's decision to keep short-term interest rates at near zero levels. Here are links to (and brief excerpts from) some of the more
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Are You Ready for What May Be a Deflationary Dance in 2015?

As we discuss our suggested portfolio allocations for 2015, remember that the most important characteristic of your portfolio—the factor that influences the performance of your portfolio more than any other—is the way you
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Warning: Don’t Mix Politics With Your Investing

It's election day, so as a follow-up to Austin's piece yesterday, I thought I'd briefly touch on an important investing lesson: don't mix politics and investing. Doing so will usually leave you poorer. This might seem
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Tomorrow’s Elections and the U.S. Economy

The polling seems to indicate there may be a new Republican majority in the U.S. Senate. If that comes to pass, what impact will that have on the U.S. economy and markets? Who knows, right? But looking at the current
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100% Of Economists: Dead Wrong

You may remember me writing early this summer about a recent survey in which 100% of economists had agreed that interest rates would rise over the following six months: It’s not that I disagreed with the conclusion — to
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Rays Of Sunlight Peeking Through The Clouds?

Here at SMI, we are not market timers and we don’t pretend to know what the market will do next. Importantly, we do not structure our investment strategies to require predictions or inputs regarding the future direction of
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When What You Know Is True…Isn’t True

One of the most widely held beliefs since the financial crisis in 2008 has been that the Fed's printing will eventually crash the dollar. I run into this all the time when I talk to people. The reality: not only has this
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