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SMI by the Numbers

SMI is now in its 30th year! Our executive editor Mark Biller has been thinking about several significant numbers related to SMI’s history — and also about numbers that tell us something about the current market
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August Sightings

Value Stocks Haven’t Traded This Low Since the Dot-Com Bubble A total-return measure of value versus growth across developed markets just slumped to its lowest since 2000. That marks almost two decades since shares dubbed
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Beware the Short Memory, and Other Points to Ponder

Crazy times “We are in such bizarre times, all bets are off. It is certainly not the time for ‘buy and hold’ unless your goal is to lose everything. If not, then you need an active, flexible, defensive investment strategy
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Howard Marks on Cycles

Just came across a section in Howard Marks' Mastering the Market Cycle that I love. It's a great, succinct summary of what I'm always trying to convey (in posts like yesterday's) about certainty vs. probability, and
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Bad News Isn’t Good News, It’s Bad News

Last week, I wrote about the rate-cut optimism that has recently driven the stock market to new highs. Today I want to dig into that a bit further and explain why this shift may mark the beginning of the end for both this
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Rate-Cut Optimism Drives S&P 500 to Milestone

The S&P 500 index briefly topped 3,000 for the first time today, driven by investor optimism that the Fed is on track to cut interest rates at the end of July. A rate cut this month would be a pretty big deal, not so much
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Is Active Management Broken?

The S&P 500 has been on a great run, but market leadership doesn’t last forever. We don’t have to look far into the past for a vivid reminder that one decade’s leader can be the next decade’s
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Investing Means Living in the Tension, and Other Points to Ponder

In whose best interest? “The SEC rules, to be implemented by June 30, 2020, are considered a win for Wall Street because, unlike the Department of Labor rules, they would still allow brokers to recommend products that
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Spinning Our Wheels?

Following last week's changes to Sector Rotation and Dynamic Asset Allocation, I received the following email. There are likely other readers with similar questions and thoughts, so I thought I'd respond here for the
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Annual Seasonality Sell Triggered, But Should it Be Part of Your Investing Strategy?

Right on schedule, the stock market's negative reaction to yesterday's Fed Chairman comments has caused the annual seasonality sell signal to trigger. To avoid any confusion, I'm speaking of the MACD signal (read on if
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