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Stock Market Valuation Review

Stock market valuations have risen so much over the course of this now 8.5-year bull market that we're concerned about the implications of today's prices on future returns. This is a normal part of the bull/bear market
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We Interrupt This Bull Market to Remind You…

These are heady times for stock investors. Today's one-year election anniversary marks a robust 28.5% gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average over that time. Even more remarkable, SMI's Sector Rotation is up a stunning
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Will the Bear’s Bite Be Especially Painful for Passive Investors?

Managing expectations is a crucial aspect of successful investing. With today’s long-running bull market having proven its resilience in the face of political, economic, and virtually every other type of threat over the
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Behind the Scenes of a Strong Year for SMI’s Strategies

We've been busily working on the November newsletter, and as part of that, I've been pulling together the quarterly "report card" that we regularly run to update members on the performance of the various SMI strategies. I
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Least Volatile Year On Record? Almost.

SMI has frequently discussed what "normal" market volatility looks like. Typically this takes the form of quoting statistics regarding the market averaging a 10% correction roughly once per year, and so on. We feel like
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Small Investors More Bullish Than at Any Time Since 2000

We've been pointing out for some time that stocks are trading at extremely elevated prices — by some measures, they've only been more expensive at the peak of the dot-com bubble. But we've also noted that stock valuations
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Facing Your Fears: Modeling the Impact of a Significant Bear Market on Your Financial Plan

Investors have enjoyed a powerful bull market over the past 8½ years. But they also carry the emotional scars of the steep declines of 2000 and 2008. With stock valuations currently stretched to
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Are You Being Diligent?

While there are reasons to be concerned about the health of the eight-plus-year-old bull market (historically high valuations, Federal Reserve tightening, and an economy performing below expectations), there are also
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Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies: Are They a Passing Fad or the Future of Finance?

2017 has been a good year for stock-market investors thus far. But the gains seen in even the strongest stock market sectors have been no match for the performance of “bitcoin” and other
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Think Large Stocks Are Expensive? Small Stocks Are Even Worse.

Much has been written about the S&P 500's valuation and how, by some measures like CAPE, this index of large-company stocks has only been more expensive historically in the periods immediately prior to the 1929 and 2000
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