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Yield Curve Mania Hits Stocks

The stock market suffered another day of steep losses yesterday, with the S&P 500 falling -3.2%. Small stocks were hit even harder, with the Russell 2000 down -4.4%. It was the fifth day so far in 2018 that the S&P 500 has
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Where Do Stocks Go From Here?

After bouncing back in early November, the stock market retested the October lows again this week. Here's your pre-Thanksgiving run-down of where things stand. Valuation As this chart from Ritholtz Wealth shows, stocks
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Upgrading 2.0 Historical Timing

October's market slide created some pretty significant investor anxiety. While that has faded as the market has rebounded, Monday's nearly 2% drop served as a reminder that we're not necessarily out of the woods
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Annual Seasonality Buy Signal Triggered – Fall 2018

This post has the potential to be confusing, especially for newer readers. So let me begin by saying that if you don't know what the term "annual seasonality" means, you can safely ignore everything written here. For
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Will You Panic When the Market Eventually Rolls Over?

“For God has not given us the spirit of fear, but of . . . a sound mind.” 2 Timothy 1:7 Investing can be challenging, not because the concepts are difficult to master, but because we are emotional creatures. The
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Duration: A Simple Way to Gauge Bond Risk

In early October, longer-term Treasury-bond yields crossed the proverbial “line in the sand” in the eyes of some bond observers. In just three days, the 10-year yield soared from 3.05% to 3.23%, reaching its highest level
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Bond Market “Regime Change”

In SMI's October cover article, The Role of SMI’s Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategy in Light of Current Market Dynamics, we revisited the concern that led to the research/creation of DAA:
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Context for an Ugly October

If you've been tuned into the market's ugly recent slide, it's probably hard to believe that just three weeks ago the market was setting new all-time highs. This downturn has been sudden and painful, but isn't particularly
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3 Reasons SMI Is Banging the Bear Market Drum

SMI has increasingly emphasized caution as this year has progressed, with the latest examples being our October cover article on Dynamic Asset Allocation and Matt's Voices of Reason, Reasons for Caution post Monday. Seems
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Fund Companies Continue to Drop Prices, Reduce Cost of Entry

In autumn, many of us enjoy watching the falling leaves. Mutual-fund investors, meanwhile, are enjoying falling fees. Although the fund industry’s “race to the bottom” probably isn’t over (more prices may yet drop), two
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